What Are My H1B Lottery Odds in 2026?

Short answer: it depends on one number you can actually look up — your wage level. Since the weighted selection rule took effect on February 27, 2026, the H-1B lottery stopped being a coin flip. Your estimated odds now scale with where your salary sits against DOL prevailing wage thresholds.

Here are the numbers, the math behind them, and the realistic ways to move them. If you want your personal figure in the next thirty seconds, run the odds simulator →.

The odds table: old vs. new

Your wage level	Pool entries	Old random lottery	Weighted lottery (DHS estimate)	Change
Level I (entry)	1	~29.6%	15.3%	−48%
Level II (qualified)	2	~29.6%	30.6%	+3%
Level III (experienced)	3	~29.6%	45.9%	+55%
Level IV (fully competent)	4	~29.6%	61.2%	+107%

These are estimated odds from DHS's analysis in the final rule — the agency simulated a weighted draw using recent registration data. Two implications jump out:

• Level I is brutal. An entry-level offer now carries roughly half the odds it used to. If you are on STEM OPT with three registration cycles ahead of you, each cycle matters more than it did.
• Level II is the pivot point. It is the only level that barely moved — and it happens to be where most H-1B petitions sit. The pain and the windfall are concentrated at the extremes.

How the math works

Think of the lottery as a raffle where your wage level decides how many tickets you hold:

1. Every eligible beneficiary enters the pool once per level: Level I holds 1 ticket, Level IV holds 4.
2. USCIS draws until it fills the cap — 65,000 regular numbers, then 20,000 advanced-degree numbers in a second draw for U.S. master's grads who missed round one.
3. Your estimated odds are roughly proportional to your tickets: 15.3% × your level number. (Not exactly — drawing without replacement makes 4 tickets worth slightly less than 4× — but DHS's own figures track the simple multiple closely.)

DHS's published example makes the baseline concrete: with ~320,700 unique beneficiaries and ~94,900 selections, the old random system gave everyone 29.6%. Weight the same pool by level and you get the 15.3 / 30.6 / 45.9 / 61.2 split.

The catch: those inputs change every year. If fewer people register, everyone's odds rise; if the pool skews toward Level III, higher levels face more competition. That is why every figure on this page says "estimated" — the rule fixes the mechanism, not the probability.

What the first weighted lottery actually looked like

FY2027 (registrations March 4–19, 2026) was the first real-world run. Early USCIS figures reported by immigration counsel:

• 211,600 registrations — down 38.5% from 343,981 in FY2026. Speculative registrations vanished once low-level entries stopped being free lottery tickets.
• 71.5% of selected beneficiaries held U.S. advanced degrees, up from 57% the prior year.
• Only 17.7% of selections were Level I.
• The cap filled in the first petition window; no second lottery was needed.

USCIS has not yet published the full selection-rate breakdown by level. When it does, the simulator on this site gets recalibrated with actuals. The full rule mechanics are in H1B Weighted Lottery Explained.

What about second lotteries?

In past years, when the first petition window did not fill the cap, USCIS ran additional selections from the remaining registrations — FY2022 famously needed three. Second rounds still exist under the weighted rule and draw from the same weighted pool, so level advantages carry over. FY2027 simply did not need one: petitions filed by June 30 filled all 85,000 numbers.

How to calculate your own odds

Three inputs, one minute:

1. Your wage level. This is the multiplier. If you do not know it, check your wage level → first — job title, city, and salary in, level out.
2. Master's cap eligibility. A U.S. master's or higher degree means two weighted draws instead of one. Two independent-ish rounds at 30.6% beats one round at 30.6%.
3. Pool assumptions. The odds simulator defaults to the latest registration figures and lets you adjust the total — useful for stress-testing "what if registrations rebound next year."

The output: your estimated selection probability under the weighted rule, side by side with the ~29.6% you would have faced under the old system.

Quantifying the master's advantage

The advanced-degree exemption was always valuable. Under weighting, it compounds: you get two draws, each at your weighted rate.

Worked example at Level II (~30.6% estimated per round): one draw leaves you at 30.6%; two draws push you toward a coin-flip-or-better across the season. At Level III, two rounds at ~45.9% make selection more likely than not by a wide margin. The FY2027 result — 71.5% of selections going to advanced-degree holders, against a registration pool where they were a minority — shows the compound effect in practice.

Note the direction of causality here is mixed: advanced-degree holders also tend to receive higher-level offers. Either way, the degree-plus-level combination is the strongest position in the new system.

Realistic ways to improve your odds

Negotiate to the next level. This is the big one. The gap between levels is often a few thousand dollars in mid-cost metros — and each level jump adds a full entry (15.3→30.6% is a doubling; 30.6→45.9% is +50%). Find your exact gap with the wage level calculator and bring that number into the comp conversation. Employers who sponsor regularly know precisely what the next threshold is.

Consider where the job is located. Thresholds vary by metro. The same salary can be Level II in San Francisco and Level III in Austin. (The rule's multiple-worksites provision blocks gaming this — registrations spanning worksites use the lowest applicable level — but genuinely choosing one location over another is legitimate.)

Look at cap-exempt employers. Universities, their affiliated nonprofits, and nonprofit or government research organizations file H-1Bs year-round with no lottery at all. Odds: not applicable, which is the best possible odds.

Use your full runway. STEM OPT gives up to three registration cycles. Under the old system each cycle was independent and equal; now each cycle is a chance to have grown into a higher level via raises or a job change.

What does not work: multiple employers registering you. The beneficiary-centric rule counts you once — and the anti-gaming provision assigns you the lowest level among all registrations. A second registration at Level I can actively hurt a Level III registration from your main employer.

What these odds are not

Estimated odds are a planning tool, not a verdict. A 15.3% chance is not zero — thousands of Level I registrations were selected in FY2027 — and a 61.2% chance is not a guarantee. The numbers describe a population, not your case; USCIS processing, petition quality, and plain luck still decide individual outcomes. For decisions with real stakes, pair the math with advice from a licensed immigration attorney.

For the employer side of the equation — which companies actually file, and at what wage levels — browse certified LCAs filed by employers in the H1B Levels salary database.

Frequently asked questions

What are my H-1B lottery odds for FY2027? By wage level, DHS estimated 15.3% (I), 30.6% (II), 45.9% (III), and 61.2% (IV) per selection round, versus ~29.6% under the old random system. A U.S. advanced degree gives you two rounds at those rates.

Are the DHS figures guaranteed? No — they are estimated odds from a simulated pool. Actual rates shift with each year's registration volume and level mix. Planning estimates, not promises.

How much does a master's degree help? A lot: you enter both the 65,000 regular-cap and 20,000 master's-cap selections — two weighted draws. In FY2027, 71.5% of selected beneficiaries held U.S. advanced degrees, up from 57% the year before.

Can I improve my odds? Yes, legitimately: a salary clearing the next OEWS threshold adds pool entries; cap-exempt employers skip the lottery entirely. Registering through multiple employers does not help — USCIS counts you once, at the lowest level submitted.

Sources

• DHS final rule with estimated selection rates, December 29, 2025 (90 FR 60864): https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-12-29/pdf/2025-23853.pdf
• DHS proposed rule odds analysis, September 24, 2025 (90 FR 45986): https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-09-24/pdf/2025-18473.pdf
• WR Immigration: FY2027 results — 211,600 registrations, 71.5% advanced degree, no second lottery: https://wolfsdorf.com/h-1b-cap-fy2027-lottery-results-next-steps/
• Manifest Law: FY2027 selection-rate analysis vs. DHS estimates: https://manifestlaw.com/blog/immigration/news/analyzing-our-h1b-selection-results-fy2027/
• Lexology: lowest-level rule and percentage changes by level: https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=47e24c11-6f47-4984-aa39-cf800b0b2f87

This site is an independent data tool and is not affiliated with any government agency. Nothing on this site constitutes legal advice or immigration advice. Lottery odds shown are statistical estimates based on DHS-published figures and assumptions; actual outcomes depend on the annual registration pool and USCIS processing. Consult a licensed immigration attorney for advice about your specific situation.

Data source: U.S. Department of Labor, Office of Foreign Labor Certification (OFLC) disclosure files, updated quarterly. LCA filing data reflects applications certified by DOL; an LCA is a labor condition application and does not by itself constitute an approved H-1B petition or an employment offer. Wage level thresholds are derived from BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS). Last data update: Q2 FY2026.