H1B Lottery Odds Simulator
Under the wage-weighted rule effective February 27, 2026, your OEWS wage level sets how many times you enter the pool. Estimate your odds below — estimates based on DHS published figures; actual odds depend on the annual registration pool.
Estimated selection odds — Level III (master's cap)
74.0%
vs 29.6% under the old random lottery
Exact no-replacement simulation (5,000 runs): 57.8% ± 1.4pp (95% CI). Multi-entry levels run slightly below the linear DHS-style estimate in exact draws.
How the rules compare
| Wage level | Entries in pool | DHS estimate | This model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Level I | 1 | 15.3% | 24.7% |
| Level II | 2 | 30.6% | 49.4% |
| Level III | 3 | 45.9% | 74.0% |
| Level IV | 4 | 61.2% | 98.7% |
"DHS estimate" figures are published by the Department of Homeland Security for the FY2027 pool; "This model" recomputes odds from the pool assumptions above (registrations: 211,600).
Sensitivity & assumptions
Actual odds depend on the annual registration pool: its total size, the wage-level mix, and how many registrations USCIS selects relative to the 85,000 cap. We refresh these inputs when USCIS publishes new registration statistics each spring. Small changes in the level mix can move Level I odds by several points.
This site is an independent data tool and is not affiliated with any government agency. Nothing on this site constitutes legal advice or immigration advice. Lottery odds shown are statistical estimates based on DHS-published figures and assumptions; actual outcomes depend on the annual registration pool and USCIS processing. Consult a licensed immigration attorney for advice about your specific situation.
Frequently asked questions
›How does the 2026 weighted H1B lottery work?
Registrations enter the selection pool 1, 2, 3, or 4 times based on the OEWS wage level of the offered job (Level I = 1 entry, Level IV = 4 entries). The annual cap is unchanged: 65,000 regular plus 20,000 U.S. advanced degree exemptions.
›What are my odds at each wage level?
DHS estimates 15.3% for Level I, 30.6% for Level II, 45.9% for Level III, and 61.2% for Level IV, versus about 29.6% for everyone under the old random system. Actual odds depend on the annual registration pool.
›Does the master's cap still help?
Yes. Advanced-degree registrations that miss the regular 65,000-cap selection enter the 20,000 pool for a second weighted draw.
›How accurate is this simulator?
It reproduces DHS-published estimates within about two percentage points using the same pool assumptions, and cross-checks them with an exact no-replacement Monte Carlo simulation. Odds for future cap seasons depend on registration data USCIS publishes each spring.